Catalyst calendar
The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.
AllI · Rare-earth magnets & motorsII · Batteries & energy densityIII · EO/IR & thermal sensorsIV · RF, EW & detectionV · Autonomy computeVI · Airframes & primesVII · Comms, datalinks & PNTVIII · NDAA-compliant supply chainIX · Interceptors & effectorsX · Private giants & exposure vehicles
July 2026
- 22EarningsTDYTeledyne Q2 2026 earnings (first print after LASSO award)First quarter to quantify the Rogue 1/LASSO loitering-munition win and Digital Imaging commentary on defense thermal-core demand — evidence the core maker is capturing downstream seeker margin.
September 2026
- 10EarningsLPTHLightPath fiscal Q4/FY2026 resultsFull-year print shows whether germanium-free BlackDiamond design wins (Lockheed missile program, G5 cooled cameras, ~$40M camera supply deal) are converting into an actual revenue ramp.
October 2026
- 12ConferenceAUSA Annual Meeting 2026 (Washington, DC, Oct 12-14)The Army's premier land-power expo is where EO/IR payload roadmaps, next-gen FLIR upgrades and counter-UAS interceptor awards get unveiled — a concentrated news window for every name in this chokepoint.
November 2026
- 27PolicyExpiry of China's suspension of the gallium/germanium/antimony export ban to the USIf the suspension lapses without renewal, germanium snaps back to full embargo (the military end-user ban never lifted), re-tightening IR optics supply overnight and repricing every de-China'd name in the chain.